Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada: Biden’s Three Biggest Problems

Jeb Allen ’27 analyzes the 2024 presidential race in three key swing states.

The 2024 election cycle is well underway, and it would be highly wishful thinking to say Biden has a clear path to reelection. Due to the electoral college system, swing states, which are states with similar levels of support for both major political parties, have outsized influence in presidential elections. The 2024 swing states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Biden won every state besides North Carolina in 2020, but current projections show Trump leading in each state. Unfortunately for Biden, some swing states have been those most negatively affected under the current administration, and voters are livid. I believe Biden faces the most trouble in Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada, and that might just cost him the election.


In my opinion, Michigan is the most important state in the 2024 election. Not only does it carry a hefty 15 votes, but since 2008, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are the only states that have elected the winning President every time. Despite Michigan only voting Republican once since 1992, according to a CNN poll on March 22, 2024, they are currently trending eight points for Trump.

While this might surprise many, it makes sense considering Michigan boasts the largest Arab American population in America. This demographic has historically voted blue but is disgusted with Biden’s recent handling of the Israel/Palestine conflict. While a 2020 nationwide Arab American Institute poll found that 74 percent of Arab Americans held a favorable view of President Biden, current national polling shows the percentage has dropped to 47. Michigan has roughly 210,000 Arab Americans; we can estimate that roughly 57,000 potential voters have changed their mind on Biden, a mortifying number for an administration that only won by approximately 155,000 votes in 2020. Despite Arab Americans only making up 2.1 percent of Michigan’s population, their ideological shift may result in cutting Biden’s 2020 margin of victory by a third.

Biden’s troubles were shown nationwide by large proportions of voters in the Democratic primaries voting “uncommitted” rather than for Biden, signaling their anger towards the current President. In Michigan, 13 percent of the 740,000 Democratic primary voters voted “uncommitted,” meaning roughly 96,000 are considering either not voting for Biden or even potentially voting for Trump. Regardless of whether they are abstaining from voting or flipping their vote, both options are major red flags for Biden, and the abundance of uncertain voters within Michigan from the Democratic party might be a fatal blow come November 2024.


While Michigan has recently been a Democratic state, Arizona has been a Republican stronghold for nearly 70 years. Since 1952, Arizona has only voted for a Democratic president twice, once for Clinton in 1996 and the other for Biden in 2020.

As California struggles with many problems, such as the highest cost of living in the continental U.S., the highest level of cost-adjusted poverty in the U.S., the second-lowest rates of home ownership, ranking last in literacy, and more, Californians migrate across the U.S.—ironically bringing their political ideologies with them. The top five states where the largest number of Californians are fleeing to are, in order: Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Florida, and Idaho. From 2021 to 2022 alone, nearly 74,000 Californians moved to Arizona. This repeated occurrence over the last few years has resulted in Arizona turning from a deep-red state to a swing state.

Despite the mass migration of Californians moving to Arizona, Arizona is trending toward voting for Trump. However, they are also trending toward re-electing their Democratic Senator. According to the data collected from an Emerson College poll from August 2023 to March 2024, when forced to choose between the two Presidential candidates, Trump is leading Biden by 4.6 percent. On the other hand, when forced to choose between the two Senate candidates, Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego prevails by 1.2 percent over the Trump-backed candidate, Kari Lake.

Although Trump only holds a four-point advantage over Biden, the same poll showed that 15.6 percent more participants believe that Joe Biden doesn’t deserve to be reelected than those who believe he does. Arizona doesn’t have a problem with Democrats; they have a problem with Joe Biden.

While I’m not an expert political analyst, I spend an unhealthy amount of time regurgitating political polls, opinions, and articles. I think it’s a pretty fair assumption to attribute this perplexity to Arizona’s anger over Biden’s immigration policy. Under Biden’s presidency alone, he has almost doubled the number of undocumented immigrants in America. There were roughly 10.2 million undocumented immigrants residing in the country in 2020, and as of January 23, 2024, 10 million more have entered the nation under the Biden administration.

For context, after Biden’s presidency, if all the undocumented immigrants lived in one state, its population would tie New York as the fourth most populated state. Without serious border reform, we could assume these numbers would increase under his second presidency, as bipartisan legislation has failed in Congress and the administration has failed to solve one of its most pressing issues.

As a result, Arizona is one of the states most impacted by the mass migration. Despite Arizona only containing approximately 2.2 percent of the U.S. population, in 2016, 2.6 percent of the nation’s undocumented immigrants resided in Arizona —  4 percent of the population of the state. It would be reasonable to assume that the recent flood of undocumented immigrants across the Southern border has disproportionately affected Arizona compared to other states.

It is likely that Arizona will flip back because of Biden’s mismanagement of the border crisis.


While most swing states voted for Trump in 2016, Nevada was one of the few that held out for Hillary Clinton, voting her in by 2.4 percent. Then, in 2020, Nevada voted for the Democratic nominee, Joe Biden, by 2.4 percent. Though Nevada has recently been a reliable state for the Democratic party, it is showing no sign of returning the favor.

Like in Arizona, the border crisis is heavily impacting Nevada as well. Nevada’s proximity to the border and existing immigrant community make it a popular destination for undocumented immigrants. Nearly one-fifth of Nevada’s population is foreign-born, and an estimated 210,000 undocumented immigrants reside in the state.

From all the data collected by Emerson College from November 2023 to February 2024, Trump has a 6 percent advantage over Nevada voters when forced to pick between the candidates. Nevertheless, when voters were asked whether they would most likely re-elect their Democratic senator, Jack Rosen, against each of the three Republicans still running to be the Republican nomination, voters sided with their senator. Nevada voters favor the Democratic senator by 2 percent when running against Sam Brown, 6 percent when running against Jim Marchant, and 11 percent when running against Jeff Gunter. Like Arizona, Nevada doesn’t have a problem with the Democratic party; they have a problem with Joe Biden.

While Michigan has recently been a democratically dominated state, and Arizona has historically been Republican, Nevada has been the purest swing state in America. Nevada doesn’t have much electoral weight at all, only carrying 6 electoral votes. Yet, it’s an incredibly accurate indicator of who will win the Presidential election. Since 1980, Nevada has voted in favor of the winning candidate all but once: 2016. Nevada wouldn’t be a massive loss for Biden regarding votes, but it would be a scary warning for Democrats.

While Trump could absolutely butcher the lead he has across America right now, there are fundamental underlying issues with many critical states. Though Michigan has mostly been a Democratic-dominated state since 1992, Biden’s steadfast support of Israel regarding the Israel/Palestine conflict has alienated a significant minority population whom the Democrats can usually rely on. As Arab Americans showed with their protest votes in the Democratic primary, their frustration with the current administration will likely lead to a significant decline in votes for Biden, and even potentially Arab Americans voting for Trump as a middle finger to Biden. Arizona and Nevada’s citizens are infuriated by Biden’s border policy.

Surprisingly, even with the mismanagement of Covid, in the 165th week of both their tenures, which is now for Biden, Trump was polling 4.28 percent higher than Biden. The Democratic party can attempt to salvage both situations before November, but with the election season already underway, the national media has begun to hammer Biden for his screwups. Biden has outraged the citizens of Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada, and unless he can mend the relationships before November, Trump will most likely be re-sworn into the Presidency on Jan. 20, 2025.