Atlantic Coast Conference: Is Everything Alright?

On Nov. 30, the Duke Blue Devils qualified for the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) college football championship game. Somehow. Hardly known as a football school, Duke had not even secured bowl eligibility until three weeks ago. They lost to UConn in November (yikes), and finished with an inauspicious 7-5 record overall. However, they played their best against their ACC competitors and ended 6-2 in intraconference play. Entering the season’s final weekend, Duke needed three games to go their way to make the conference championship. And they all did. Miami mauled a good Pitt team in the cold, Duke handled Wake Forest, and Cal upset heavily favored SMU (in a rivalry week matchup that was not at all some mutant ad hoc symptom of conference realignment). With SMU and Pitt blowing their opportunities, five teams finished at 6-2 in intraconference play in the ACC — and Duke won the tiebreaker. 

Waiting for them in that championship match were the Virginia Cavaliers. Building slowly under new Head Coach Tony Elliot, expectations were low for this Virginia team entering the season. In Week 2, they lost to conference foe North Carolina State, but, due to a scheduling quirk, that loss did not count towards their in-conference record. Then, in Week 5, they upset No. 8 Florida State at home, which resulted in one of the craziest field stormings you’ll ever see. From there, they played a number of close games and even lost at home against Wake Forest, but managed to finish with only two losses. As chaos engulfed the competition, a program that hadn’t had a winning season since 2019 waltzed into the conference championship game. Remarkable stuff. 

So that was the matchup. Unranked Duke versus No. 17 Virginia. The best team in the ACC, Miami, was not there. Clemson, with their preseason national championship aspirations, wasn’t either. Nor was Florida State. Instead, a pair of basketball blue bloods stole the spotlight. 

Now, why was this a problem? Was it not totally off-the-wall, wacky, and fun that in this era of college football, where the sport’s finest are increasingly separating themselves from the field, two underdog teams shared this stage? Who cares that Miami missed out this year (besides, of course, Miami fans)? They’ll have an equally good shot next year and the year after that. Let the have-nots enjoy their moment. 

That is the perspective of the average fan, which is valid. However, for ACC executives, this matchup was, at minimum, an embarrassment, and, at worst, a full-fledged disaster. 

Before explaining why that might be, it is first important to understand that the ACC is currently considered what’s called a “power conference” in college football. They, alongside the Big Ten, Southeastern Conference (SEC), and Big 12, run the sport. Besides Notre Dame, every relevant program in the country resides in one of these conferences, and their directors resolve most of college football’s major decisions among themselves — including regarding the playoff format. These conferences are also condensing. For the past five years, big-name programs like Texas, USC, Oklahoma, and others have been switching conferences in a mad scramble driven by money and prestige to settle in the best conference. In the chaos of conference realignment, the Pac-12 died while the Big Ten and SEC emerged as the two superpower conferences. 

Falling slightly behind, and desperate to keep up, is the ACC. Post Clemson’s 2010s dynasty, the ACC has been rather quiet on the national scene. No ACC team has seriously challenged for a national championship since Clemson in 2020, a couple of their stalwarts even threatened leaving, and it has been a frustrating half-decade for the conference. Rather than solidifying their status as a power conference, they are growing a reputation for chaotic mediocrity. This reputation, considered within the context of the pressures of conference realignment, is a serious concern for the ACC. In the NIL environment, if any power conference appears to have dipped a level below the others, then that conference risks losing billions of dollars in media rights deals — not to mention fan revenue and esteem. Something that would clearly indicate that a specific conference no longer belongs in the upper echelon of the college football pecking order? Missing the playoffs.

The College Football Playoff (CFP) is college football’s postseason. In its current format, 12 teams make the field, with the five top-ranked conference champions being guaranteed a spot. That clause — regarding the top five champions — was assumed to ensure representation for every power conference in America. Yet this year, the ACC outdid itself. Duke, with their five losses and unimpressive strength of schedule, would not make the CFP, even as ACC champions. Unsurprisingly, whoever the Big Ten, SEC, and Big 12 champions are will all easily qualify ahead of them. But so too could the American and Sun Belt Conference champions! In the American Conference, both Tulane and Northern Texas are ranked already, so there’s no doubt that the winner of that matchup will make the field. But then James Madison could as well! James Madison, the Dukes, a team that only joined FBS Division 1 football in 2022, is 11-1 and only needed to win a game they were favored by 23.5 to make the CFP over the Blue Devils. 

If Virginia won on Saturday, the Cavaliers would certainly have made the CFP as a top-five conference champion, and the ACC would have dodged a bullet and placed a team into the playoffs after all. Yet, that doesn’t really matter. Yes, it would be an incredible embarrassment and categorical failure for the ACC to miss the playoffs this year, but even if they do make them, they are still in hot water. Across the conference, programs are going to need to invest more into their infrastructure and be willing to pay millions of dollars for star coaches and players to keep pace in the modern age of college football. At least Virginia Tech is making strides after recently hiring James Franklin as head coach. College football is unpredictable by nature, so maybe five years down the line, any current concerns about the ACC will be remembered as alarmist. Or, maybe, this year marks the beginning of a slow, painful fall from grace for the formerly grand Atlantic Coast Conference.