Before the Game: Analysis of the Homecoming Matchup

The Homecoming football game is a long-running tradition in our college’s history. Students and alums alike will cheer on our Mammoths this Saturday as they take on Wesleyan University. In anticipation of this matchup, I’ve prepared all the facts you need to know before heading to Pratt Field.

The first thing to note is that Wesleyan is an excellent defensive team. This team has the most efficient defense, with a 104.5 rating. The Cardinals allow the fewest average points against opponents per game in the NESCAC. Wesleyan holds opposing teams to the fewest average passing and rushing yards per game and leads the league in fumbles forced and recovered. Moreover, the Cardinals force opponents to an average of 13.5 first downs per game, the league’s lowest. Wesleyan’s opponents only convert on third downs 28.6% of total attempts, and they have the best red zone defense in the NESCAC. Wesleyan’s defense presents a significant challenge to all teams, requiring offensive innovation to achieve victory.

A winning offensive performance from Amherst against Wesleyan, however, will require immediate and effective shifts from the offensive demonstrations we’ve seen so far this season. Over the past two games, Amherst scored only 14 total points, while their opponents scored 73 points. Amherst is second to last in average points per game, behind only Hamilton College. The Mammoths have the lowest average total yardage in the league, with 198.3 yards per game. Amherst has 15 sacks against them, the third-highest in the NESCAC. The Mammoths convert the least often on third downs, only finding success 18.1% of the time. Amherst averages 12.2 first downs per game, the lowest in the league. Amherst’s average time of possession per game is 26 minutes 24 seconds, again, the weakest in the NESCAC. Major adjustments or lucky deviations from the above statistics are necessary for the Mammoths to prevail over the Cardinals.

In the matchup between a superb defense and an offense in need of improvements, there will be some key players to note. The first such player is Wesleyan’s star linebacker Ben Carbeau ’24. Carbeau is third in the NESCAC for total tackles, fourth in tackles for loss, and ninth in sacks. He has been Wesleyan’s premier defensive threat, meaning Amherst must prevent Carbeau from making big plays against our offense. Wesleyan’s next notable player is wide receiver Chase Wilson ’24. Wilson is second in receiving yards in the league, second in touchdown receptions, third in average yards per catch, and has the longest caught reception in the league at 87 yards. Wilson may be the best offensive receiver in the NESCAC and presents a great opportunity for Wesleyan, which Amherst needs to shut down from the jump. On the Mammoths’ side, one player to highlight is defensive back Luke Harmon ’26. Harmon is tied for most interceptions in the league, sixth in total tackles, and jointly leads Amherst in sacks. His defensive performance can give Amherst a chance to compete against Wesleyan’s offensive prowess. Harmon’s wide receiver teammate, Carter Jung ’26, is another key player to look out for in this matchup. Jung has 171 receiving yards and a touchdown and is possibly the best kick returner in the NESCAC. In 15 returns, he’s amassed 393 yards, averaging 26.2 yards per return. In all-purpose yards, Jung is sixth in the league with 564 yards. His excellence in kick returns leaves me hopeful that Jung will be a game-winning player in the Mammoths’ match this Saturday.

Of course, we also must analyze what this match means for both teams. Wesleyan is currently ranked third in the NESCAC, behind Trinity and Middlebury. All three teams possess a 5-1 record, meaning NESCAC Champion is a real possibility for the Cardinals. Wesleyan will want to come out strong to guarantee their shot at winning the league. Despite Amherst’s 2-4 record, they will also really want to win this game. The Mammoths are a middle-of-the-pack team, knocking on the door to the top five NESCAC teams. A win would help cement their status as a team working to be one of the NESCAC’s best. Amherst is also on a four-game losing streak, so a win would be just as great for the record as it would be for team morale. And how much greater does a morale-boosting win get against possibly the best team in the NESCAC on Homecoming weekend? I will not say much. Amherst is fighting an uphill battle, but I have the utmost confidence in their ability to pull off a win against Wesleyan this Saturday.