College Basketball: A List Revisited

Assistant Managing Editor Ethan Niewoehner ‘29 revisits his selection of college basketball’s best teams with March Madness quickly approaching. 

Back in November, I wrote an article listing the eight teams that I thought had the best chance to win the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Championship. The season had newly begun, the division’s brightest and best were just emerging, and for us media folk, distinguishing between true talents and small-sample-size posers was tricky. I hit on many picks, but — through no fault of my own, of course — missed on some others. A season wiser and three months later, though, it’s time for a revised edition. So, with March looming ever larger on the horizon, here are the eight teams with the best chance to bring home the title this year, with their strengths, weaknesses, and lingering questions laid bare. Your future March Madness champion resides below. 

1. Michigan Wolverines

Michigan just barely snuck into my early-season rankings, snagging the eighth and final spot then. Though I was relatively confident in the Wolverine defense, I had serious concerns about their offensive weaponry, not yet trusting their guards. How I undersold them. Defensively, according to KenPom (an advanced analytics ranking system), Michigan is the best team in the country. Their forwards are towering and mobile, their guards are sticky and long-armed, and Head Coach Dusty May’s side has held opponents to a morbid 37% shooting. Offensively, this team isn’t much worse. The guards have exceeded expectations, and the bigs are borderline unstoppable. Size and guard play wins in March. Michigan has both in abundance. 

2. Arizona Wildcats

Arizona beat Florida. Then UConn. Then Alabama and BYU. In fact, they beat everyone up until a trip to Allen Fieldhouse, where they finally dropped from 23-0 to 23-1, against Kansas. The advanced ranking systems love them. They are third in NET, third in KenPom, third in EvanMiya, and they have the best resume in college basketball. They are undeniably excellent because they simply have no weaknesses. Jaden Bradley hits every clutch shot. Brayden Burries and Koa Peat are freshman sensations. Motiejus Krivas is one of the best defending centers in the nation. Arizona has the highest field goal percentage in the Power Five, with one of the best defenses to match. There is absolutely no reason why Arizona can’t win the title; in fact, they are my favorite to do so. 

3. Duke Blue Devils

Duke’s two losses have come by four points. In each, Duke blew double-digit second-half leads, raising questions about their relative inexperience. A freshman, Cameron Boozer, leads Duke in points, rebounds, assists, and steals. Patrick Ngongba and Isaiah Evans, Duke’s second- and third-leading scorers, respectively, are sophomores. Relying on young talent makes sense when the talent is as good as Duke’s is; Boozer is the odds-on favorite to win the player of the year award, and Ngongba and Evans are also projected as NBA first-round draft picks. However, an overreliance on youth is often exposed in March. Last year, Duke’s outstanding freshmen imploded late against a veteran Houston squad. Thus far, the Blue Devils have been outstanding. Their talent is obvious. Whether or not their young stars can take them the distance is not.

4. Houston Cougars

Head Coach Kelvin Sampson has done it again, guiding Houston to a 23-3 record: he has seamlessly combined veteran leadership with explosive freshman talent to formulate a team that simply keeps getting better. Kingston Flemings, Emanuel Sharp, and Milos Uzan are three of the best guards in the country. Flemings, especially, has been a revelation, with his 42-point game against Texas Tech cementing his status as a top player, regardless of class, in the country. Houston has improved over the course of the season and is playing their best basketball just in time for a gauntlet against Iowa State, Arizona, and Kansas. Kelvin Sampson is due for a championship. Why not this year? 

5. UConn Huskies

The Huskies have been battling injuries all year, but despite this they are 24-2. Jayden Ross missed time with a hamstring injury; then Solo Ball had a wrist issue; Braylon Mullins is now in concussion protocol; and Tarris Reed has been battling one ailment or another all year, it seems. But it hasn’t mattered. Not really. Despite lineup changes and streaky 3-point shooting, this UConn team has been a pillar of consistency. The defense is lockdown, the offense is resilient, and this team never wavers in tight spots — having won nine games by single digits. Head Coach Dan Hurley has won two of the past three championships. You’d be foolish to overlook the Huskies for a third championship in four tries. 

6. Iowa State Cyclones

Iowa State walked into Mackey Arena and beat the then top-ranked Purdue Boilermakers 81-58 on the road. And the sport took notice. Stringing 16 straight wins together before finally dropping a game, the Cyclones rely on stifling defense with a healthy amount of offense on top. They score 84 points per game while only allowing 64; they lead the Big 12 in steals per game, they hit 40.0% of their threes, and they’ve got two of the best forwards in the country in Milan Momcilovic and Joshua Jefferson. The key: to hold teams under 79 points. When they do so, they are 19-1. When they don’t, they are 2-2. 

7. Florida Gators

Florida really should not have lost to Auburn. Before then, they had blitzed Georgia, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt, and since then, they have smashed Alabama and dismantled Texas A&M. Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh have given this team championship pedigree and talent, and on most nights, you can tell this Gator squad won it all last year. On those nights, you half expect them to win it all again. But then there are the other nights where Auburn beats Florida in Gainesville. Then the cracks surface, and you notice the uneven guard play, you notice the 29.2% 3-point shooting, and you realize that Florida has only beaten one currently-ranked team (as of the Week 15 AP Poll). Florida has the ability, as their recent hot streak shows, but do they have the consistency for a title? Maybe. 

8. Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue’s offense has been a problem for opposing teams. Anchored by the best point guard in the country,  Braden Smith, the Boilermakers can beat anyone in a track meet. But difficulties have arisen when their potent offense is forced to slow down. Purdue has scored fewer than 80 points only seven times this year, yet three of their four total losses have come in those games. After dropping three in a row to UCLA, Illinois, and Indiana, the Boilermakers appear to have righted the ship, beating seventh-ranked Nebraska on the road. In March, an elite offense will only go as far as its defense allows. Purdue’s defense is right on the borderline between just enough for a title and prohibitive for a championship. We’ll see next month which side it falls on.