College Basketball Just Started. Who’s Going to Win it All?

It has been seven months since the Florida Gators beat the Houston Cougars by two in San Antonio to win the 2024 men’s college basketball championship — seven long months without college basketball. But, at last, the clouds have parted: College basketball is back, baby! The freshmen phenoms have arrived, some poor kid just got posterized, and your favorite team is playing a Division III school you’ve never heard of. 

The games kicked off on Nov. 3, and the action really ramps up towards the end of the month when the in-season tournaments begin. But before things play themselves out on the hard court, let’s take a look at some early national title favorites. Can Houston finally get it done? Does UConn have their mojo back? Is Michigan legit? Who else figures to loom large come season’s end? Here are eight teams I think have the best shot to win the national championship in March, ranked from best to worst.  

1. Houston Cougars: 

Head coach Kelvin Sampson is entering his 12th season at the University of Houston, and after three Final Four appearances, the man has done everything but win a national title. He came as close as possible last year, but this season’s Cougars team might be his best shot yet. They’re projected to be the best defense in the country — and by a wide margin. Milos Uzan, Emanuel Sharp, and a bevy of seasoned upperclassmen have returned and are reinforced by three incoming five-star freshmen. Though LJ Cryer and his team leading 15.7 points per game are gone, the returnees provide plenty of offensive scoring weapons this season. Sampson is too great to retire without a championship — this is finally his year.

2. Purdue Boilermakers:

The Purdue Boilermakers just keep getting better under head coach Matt Painter. Two-time Wooden Award winner Zach Edey left for the NBA draft and they didn’t blink an eye. Out of the woodwork, Braden Smith has emerged as yet another Boilermaker player of the year candidate while fan favorites Trey Kaufman-Renn and Fletcher Loyer maul players in the post and make three aplenty respectively. Having among the nation’s best offenses, any issues Purdue has will stem from their defensive lapses. Nonetheless, this is a tried and true, veteran Boilermaker team that is favored to win the Big Ten and has all the pieces to advance far into the tournament in March.

3. Duke Blue Devils: 

Normally when teams start four freshmen, the program is reeling. In Duke’s case, it is evidence of their strength. Over the summer, Cooper Flagg and Kon Kneuppel left for the NBA draft, but head coach Jon Scheyer simply responded by signing four top-50 recruits. It’s a dark magic that flows through Durham. Duke is the most elite evenly balanced team in the country, with a borderline top-five offense and defense. The Atlantic Coast Conference finally offers some real opposition in the University of Louisville and University of North Carolina, so Duke will be unable to fully coast for the back half of the season (unlike last year). Maybe Duke’s freshmen fall short in the tournament. But with their talent, I wouldn’t count on it. 

4. Kentucky Wildcats: 

Kentucky’s entire starting lineup began their collegiate careers elsewhere. But you wouldn’t know it. Mark Pope recruits well and has mastered the Name Image and Likeness system, compiling a remarkably balanced and talented team for his second campaign in Lexington. Denzel Aberdeen brings championship experience; Otega Oweh will build off a 16.2 ppg season; and Jaland Lowe, who was dynamite at Pitt last year, will run the offense. Like Duke, Kentucky will have an elite offense and defense, though not to quite the same level. The SEC is going to be a bloodbath, but Kentucky will likely emerge on top. 

5. UConn Huskies: 

UConn failed to three-peat last year. Nonetheless — despite how head coach Dan Hurley may have acted — the sky was not falling then, nor is it now. The players at UConn are just so solid. Solo Ball is poised to take another step into stardom after a year of development; Alex Karaban has won two national championships; Tarris Reed Jr. is an old-school paint presence who will work in the post and grab rebounds; and two senior transfers and three explosive freshmen flush out the rotation. UConn boasts one of the most balanced, experienced, and deep rosters in the sport: all elements that bode well in the tournament. 

6. Illinois Fighting Illini: 

Head coach Brad Underwood just gets it done. He’s loud, he’s angry, he wins, and apparently, he’s quite fond of Europeans. Mihailo Petrovic, Andrej Sotojakovic, Tomislav Ivisic, David Mirkovic, and Zvonimir Ivisic are all going to play quality minutes this year, and the three Serbians and two Croatians already have ample professional and collegiate experience. Illinois hasn’t yet made a threatening postseason run under Underwood, but this team wields a potent offensive attack and has the gritty defensive character that Underwood loves. If Stojakovic can elevate his game and become an All-Big Ten caliber player, watch out for the Illini.

7. Arizona Wildcats: 

Arizona is a fun team. Last year, Caleb Love made every game of theirs a must watch, and though he may be gone, his spirit endures. Jaden Bradley and Tobe Awaka return as foundational pieces at point and near the rim. However, it's Arizona’s freshmen who are really exciting. Koa Peta is star material with downhill speed, shooting, and a takeover mentality; Brayden Burries will start; and Dwayne Aristode has serious upside (hi, Bryce James). Arizona is going to be a consistent, fundamental team who are good on both offense and defense: precisely the winning formula come March. 

8. Michigan Wolverines: 

Michigan’s roster is as deep as any, and finding the best lineups will be a headache for second year coach Dusty May (shoutout best eighth man in college basketball, Will Tschetter). Defensively, NBA prospect Yaxel Lendeborg and the giraffe-like, 7’3” Aday Mara give this team the size to hang with anyone. Offensively, Michigan can take a massive leap if the guards turn the ball over less and improve their shooting. With a lot of moving parts, Michigan has the longest odds on this list. While they could easily lose in the Round of 32, Dusty May proved last year that he can coach his tail off in the postseason, and this squad is flush with firepower. Nobody will want to deal with this Wolverine squad in March.