NFL Hot Takes — NFC North
The NFC North is currently the toughest division in the NFL. The Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears, and Green Bay Packers have all been shown to be potential playoff contenders this season. Today, I will give my hottest take on each of these teams.
Detroit Lions
Amon-Ra St. Brown will never have a season as good as last year. St. Brown is an excellent player who is unfortunately stuck playing with other very excellent players. The emergence of Jameson Williams has severely cut into St. Brown’s opportunities. While Williams has only been targeted 29 times for 16 receptions, he has amassed 365 yards. Williams’ contributions have clearly cut into St. Brown’s stats compared to last year. Through his first five games in 2023, he caught the ball 38 times for 455 yards. So far this year, St. Brown has 31 receptions for 289 yards. Williams has the second best average yards per reception in the league at 22.8, meaning St. Brown has fewer opportunities to collect high yardage despite Jameson’s low reception count. We also haven’t factored in players like veteran David Montgomery and sophomore players Sam Laporta and Jamyr Gibbs. Montgomery and Gibbs are one of, if not the best, running back duos in the league who significantly contribute to the Lions’ offense. Montgomery's contract extension and Gibbs’ fifth-year option means both players could stay on the team until the 2028-2029 season. Laporta is on contract until 2026, and Jameson’s fifth-year option could extend him to 2026. The Lions’ future looks bright with these players’ contracts, which means that St. Brown’s chances of a 1500+ yard season look ever more bleak.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings’ defense is the reason for the team’s success. While offensive players like Justin Jefferson, Sam Darnold, and Aaron Jones have certainly helped win games for Minnesota, the defense has undoubtedly contributed the most to the Vikings’ winning ways. The Vikings have incredible feats this season in their passing defense. Minnesota has 11 interceptions, the most in the league. In the league, the Vikings have the second lowest average points scored against per drive, 1.25 points. They hold opposing quarterbacks to a 70.3 average passer rating, the lowest in the league. The Vikings are third, not only in sacks but also in quarterback hits. Moreover, Minnesota is just as excellent with its rushing defense. The Vikings have only allowed a league best one-rushing touchdown this season. The team has the lowest total rushing yards allowed and is second lowest in average rushing yards against per game. Minnesota is second in total points against and third in average points against per game. The Vikings have one of the best defensive sides in the league, allowing Minnesota to win games against explosive teams like the San Francisco 49ers, Houston Texans, and Green Bay Packers.
Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams is still the best player in the 2024 draft class. Caleb didn’t spring onto the scene like second overall pick Jayden Daniels, but he has improved tremendously each week. Caleb’s average completion percentage in the past three weeks is 74%. He’s thrown seven touchdown passes and only one interception. Caleb averaged 229 passing yards per game and 34 rushing yards per game despite only averaging five rushing attempts. His average passer rating has been roughly 119.1, a tremendous improvement from his 62.5 passer rating in the first three games. His drastic improvements may be partly due to the competition he’s faced in these weeks, i.e., the Rams, Panthers, and Jaguars, but it also has to do with the offensive line’s somewhat newfound success. Caleb has been sacked seven times in the past three weeks. He was sacked seven times in the week two game against Houston alone. Caleb is currently second in the league regarding sacks endured with 20, behind only Deshaun Watson. When the offensive line has been able to protect Caleb, as shown in these past three games, he can flourish and demonstrate his capabilities as the 1st overall pick.
Green Bay Packers
Jayden Reed is just as good as Justin Jefferson this season. Reed has 34 targets this season compared to Jefferson’s 43. Despite this nine-target difference in favor of Jefferson, Reed has caught the ball one more time than Jefferson. Jefferson has four touchdown receptions and 450 yards so far; Reed has three touchdown receptions and 442 yards. Regarding average yards per reception, Jefferson is only ahead of Reed by 0.9 yards. Both players have eight 20+ yard receiving plays this season. While Jefferson has four more first-down plays, Reed has 73 more receiving yards after catches (YAC). These two players are very statistically similar, with some statistics favoring Jefferson and some favoring Reed. With this statistical similarity in mind, it seems clear that Reed deserves to be in the same conversations as Jefferson when discussing their contributions to their respective teams and overall ability to produce impressive numbers.