Predictions for This Year’s Oscars Ceremony

The Academy Awards, colloquially and henceforth known as the Oscars, always claim they are the place where art goes to be celebrated. Critics say that they are the place where art competes, and thus where it goes to die. I would hold that both are right, and that the joy of the ceremony comes at the intersection of the two. In the end, the Oscars are politics, plain and simple — only, without all of the horrifying implications of real politics. And, just like in politics, we can take polling or precursor awards in line with historical patterns to forecast results. What follows is the most likely map, at least as I see it:  

Best Visual Effects

It is commonly said that there are two certainties in life: death and taxes. Whoever wrote that quote originally obviously did not live long enough to see the third certainty: an “Avatar” movie winning Best Visual Effects. Even with “Fire and Ash” missing Best Picture and having the worst nomination slate for any movie in the franchise thus far, this is the easiest category of the night.

Prediction: “Avatar: Fire and Ash”

Potential upset: “Sinners” (but only if it sweeps literally everything else)

Best Documentary/Animated/Live Action Shorts

The lack of precursor awards for the shorts always makes this category difficult to predict. At least Documentary short is easy: “All The Empty Rooms” is both the most acclaimed nominee and the only one on a major streaming service — Netflix. The trite, yet gorgeous and high-budget “Forevergreen” probably falls just short of the messy but deeply felt “Butterfly” in Animated. Live Action is the hardest, but “Two People Exchanging Saliva” has too many similarities to last year’s winner, “I Am Not A Robot,” for me to ignore.

Predictions: “All the Empty Rooms,” “Butterfly,” “Two People Exchanging Saliva”

Potential Upsets: “Armed With Only A Camera,” “Forevergreen,” “A Friend of Dorothy” 

Best Make-up and Hairstyling/Production Design/Costume Design

These three are bundled together because they are often awarded together to one artistic juggernaut. Last year’s was “Wicked,” and this year’s is “Frankenstein.” While it is likely to win all three, don’t be surprised if “Sinners” sneaks in somewhere, especially with the beloved Ruth E. Carter working overtime to differentiate two Michael B. Jordans.  

Prediction: “Frankenstein” for all three

Potential Upsets: “Sinners,” especially for Costume Design (and maybe also for Make-up) 

Best Sound

At the Oscars, “Best Sound” really means “Loudest Movie So Long As It Isn’t Mixed Horribly, Looking At You, Sir Christopher Nolan.” No matter how good the “Sinners” music sounds, “F1” gets it for the car revving alone.

Prediction: “F1” 

Potential Upset: “Sinners”  

Best Original Score/Original Song

Both of these looked initially like tough races, with Ludwig Göransson and “I Lied to You” from “Sinners” in a tight heat with Jonny Greenwood’s score for “One Battle After Another” and “Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” respectively. Now, Göransson looks certain to complete his sweep, giving him his third Oscar in a decade, while the smash success of “Golden” is nigh-unbeatable.

Prediction: Ludwig Göransson, “Sinners” and “Golden”

Potential Upsets: Jonny Greenwood, “One Battle After Another” and “I Lied to You” 

Best Animated Feature

Sure, “Zootopia 2” made over a billion dollars, and its predecessor won the award, but typically sequels don’t do well in this category if they aren’t named “Toy Story.” And, besides, if “KPop Demon Hunters” had actually been released in theaters, it would have made a billion dollars too. HUNTR/X is going to be — or rather, get — golden.

Prediction: “KPop Demon Hunters”

Potential Upset: Acclaimed indie “Arco” is the only possible competitor to Sony’s dominance.

Best Documentary Feature

Like the Documentary Short category, accessibility definitely matters here, in addition to interesting and relevant subject matter. The only point against “The Perfect Neighbor,” Netflix’s highly acclaimed exploration of Florida’s stand-your-ground laws, is its experimental structure of a montage of solely body-cam footage and other pre-existing footage. If that point becomes too strong, expect HBO’s “The Alabama Solution” to break in.

Prediction: “The Perfect Neighbor”

Potential Upset: “The Alabama Solution”

Best Cinematography

This is a battle between two well-shot movies, each with one standout scene: the “I Lied to You” long take sequence in “Sinners” and the hill car chase in “One Battle After Another.” As much as I want Autumn Durald Arkapaw’s work on “Sinners” to make her the first woman to win this award, the propulsive intensity of Michael Bauman’s action and dialogue scenes is both the best and most awarded work in this category.  

Prediction: “One Battle After Another”

Potential Upset: “Sinners,” but don’t count out the pristine beauty of “Train Dreams”

Best Editing

There are two types of Editing Oscar winners: the undeniable technical showcase, which is highly acclaimed and usually an action or war movie, and the future Best Picture winner, which often also contains good editing. The closest to the former this year is “F1,” and the latter is “One Battle After Another,” which has a 160-minute runtime that feels like so much less. This is a latter type of year, certainly. 

Prediction: “One Battle After Another”

Potential Upset: “F1”

Best Original/Adapted Screenplay

These two are some of the most important categories of the night, but I group them together because they are among this year’s most locked-in results. In Original, the Academy will likely choose this place to honor Ryan Coogler’s imaginative achievement with “Sinners.” In Adapted, Paul Thomas Anderson’s smooth reinvention of Thomas Pynchon’s “Vineland” will propel “One Battle After Another” to another victory. Of note: both writers are also the directors of their respective films, and they will finally compete against each other later in this list. 

Prediction: Ryan Coogler, “Sinners” and Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”

Potential Upset: Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value” and Chloé Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell, “Hamnet”

Best Casting

This brand new category is the biggest wild card of the night. Other award shows have a similar category, and they swing back and forth between awarding genuinely interesting casting choices and being a de facto ensemble award. “Marty Supreme” and “The Secret Agent” each have their one central star surrounded by a colorful and creatively chosen cast, but the “Sinners” ensemble is bound to turn this into a repeat of the Actor Awards.

Prediction: “Sinners”

Potential Upset: “Marty Supreme”

Best International Feature Film

Last year, “Emilia Pérez” became the first movie to be nominated for Best Picture and lose the International category, as “I’m Still Here” won instead. It won’t remain alone there for long, as either “Sentimental Value” or “The Secret Agent” will join it soon enough. This time, however, the Brazilian film is much less likely to prevail, as the nine-nomination overperformance of “Sentimental Value” proves it to be an Academy favorite, and all without any backlash like that of “Emilia.” 

Prediction: Norway, Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value” 

Potential Upset: Brazil, Kleber Mendonça Filho, “The Secret Agent”

Best Supporting Actor

Stellan Skarsgård is the prototypical supporting actor winner: a beloved and overdue legend playing a great role with a lot of complex “Oscar moments” that are meaty enough to make him arguably a lead. And on top of that, he’s playing a director, and the Oscars love movies about movies. The only mark against him is that Sean Penn, already a two-time winner who doesn’t like award shows at all, is fresh off winning the excellent predictors of BAFTA (British Academy of Film and Television Arts) and the Actor Awards. He has the lead; now he just needs to actually show up at the ceremony.

Prediction: Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”

Potential Upset: Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”

Best Supporting Actress

Honestly, your guess is as good as mine. Every single actress here has at least one mark against her. My heart goes out to Inga Ibsdotter Lilleas, my favorite of the bunch, but it’s looking like a three-way race between Wunmi Mosaku, Teyana Taylor, and Amy Madigan. I think the strength of “One Battle After Another” and the distinctiveness of her performance will power Taylor to a win over the infrequently nominated Mosaku and Madigan as the lone representative from “Weapons.” But, really, this is anyone’s game. 

Prediction: Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”

Potential Upset: Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners” and Amy Madigan, “Weapons”

Best Actor

This is also an extremely difficult category, but for very different reasons. Michael B. Jordan seems like the favorite, coming off his Actor Awards win, but the BAFTA going to the Oscar-ineligible Robert Aramayo means that we know next to nothing about the increasingly international tastes of the Academy. I almost hesitate to make a decision at all. Michael B. Jordan and Timothee Chalamet seem to be duking it out, but Ethan Hawke and Leonardo DiCaprio can still sneak in on veteran name recognition. The only one to rule out is Wagner Moura, so sorry to him!

Prediction: Timothee Chalamet, “Marty Supreme” (for right now)

Potential Upset: Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners” and Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another” and, just to be sure, Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”

Best Actress

After a very chaotic last five years of Best Actress races and other hotly contested acting categories, it feels good to have a good, old-fashioned, well-deserved sweep. Jesse Buckley has won almost every award and looks almost certain to add one final one on Oscar night. It’s rather telling that her only relevant competition is Rose Byrne in another lone nomination; the idea of her beating Buckley at this point is almost absurd.

Prediction: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”

Potential Upset: Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You” 

Best Director

Even in the situation where Paul Thomas Anderson’s direction of “One Battle” was substandard, the amount of praise the movie as a whole is getting would propel him on the path of a classic overdue narrative, akin to Martin Scorsese winning for “The Departed” or Al Pacino winning for “Scent of a Woman.” But Anderson’s direction is perhaps the best and most acclaimed part of the movie, making this an even easier win. After 11 losses over three decades, I think he’s getting at least two statues at the end of the night.

Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”

Potential Upset: Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”

Best Picture

As you can probably guess from my predicted winners and upsets, this race is largely seen as having been whittled down very quickly to two movies: “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another.” And people will tell you that it is still a close race between the two, especially after “Sinners” won Outstanding Cast at the Actor Awards. Unfortunately, this is essentially the only major award where “Sinners” and “One Battle” directly competed and, “Sinners” won. Every single other time, “One Battle” won. It’s still a race, but it certainly isn’t close. The quality and acclaim of each, along with all of the other excellent nominees, prove that movies can still be great, and that we, the audience, are the ones who really win. Well, us and Paul Thomas Anderson, I suppose. 

Prediction: “One Battle After Another”

Potential Upset: “Sinners” and maybe “Hamnet”